Three-Year Valuation Method for Stocks
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About this skill
Problem Solved
Single-point valuations often mix assumptions, risk, and financial red flags into one number. This skill structures equity fundamental analysis into auditable steps: first test whether the business model is understandable, then screen out financial concerns, and finally produce a three-scenario valuation range instead of buy/sell instructions.
How It Works
It proceeds by circle of competence → basic tests → business quality → financial exclusions → valuation → review. Inputs include business description, latest reports, management discussion, segment data, and valuation data; official A-share reports can be retrieved from Cninfo using references/cninfo-reports.md and scripts/cninfo_download_reports.py.
- Quick screen: checks competence, basic tests, major red flags, and rough valuation.
- Company report: uses
references/company-analysis-template.mdto document business, finance, risk, and what would change the view. - Annual report review: applies
references/financial-statement-red-flags.mdto assets, profit, cash flow, and notes. - Numerical valuation: uses
scripts/valuation.pyor transparently reproduces the formula for three scenarios.
Boundaries
Suitable for companies with public financial statements and understandable businesses; financial, loss-making, cyclical, and early-stage companies need lower confidence. Not for short-term timing, real-time quotes, news-driven commentary, or personalized buy/sell advice. Missing data should be listed, not invented.
Use Cases
- When screening a stock, first check business model, basic tests, and major red flags before rough valuation.
- When researching a listed company, use annual reports and segment data to build three valuation scenarios.
- When reviewing annual reports, apply red-flag checks to balance sheet, income statement, cash flow, and notes.
- When working with A-share filings, download recent annual, semiannual, and quarterly reports from Cninfo.
Best For
- Equity fundamental analysts who want to structure red flags, scenario valuations, and assumptions clearly.
- Value-investing researchers who want to test circle of competence before deeper valuation.
- A-share research assistants who need to download official annual reports and extract key financial data.
- Engineering users building finance workflows who want transparent valuation formulas and no fabricated data.
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