About this skill

What problem it solves

Investment and career decisions often fail because the order of analysis is wrong: people chase upside before checking whether leverage, shorting, or out-of-scope risk is present. This skill turns public viewpoints into checklists, reducing impromptu reasoning.

How it works

Question routing: selects a path for investment, career, startup, or failure review.
Subtraction first: checks the three don’ts, circle of competence, and benfen before proceeding.
Addition second: runs the five-step process — goal, problem, diagnosis, solution, execution — with concrete actions.
Failure conversion: applies pain + reflection = progress, while recognizing that some errors leave no room for reflection.
Style constraints: requires grounded citations and transitions, preventing loose framework stacking.

Where it applies and what to watch

It is aimed at engineers and technical decision-makers who want structured reasoning, not answers. The skill does not provide specific buy/sell advice, market forecasts, or negative judgments about companies and people. Because it is built from public statements, treat it as a thinking framework, not a definitive conclusion, especially for novel situations or disputed ideas.

Screenshots

Use Cases

When considering adding to a stock position, use the three don’ts and business-model checks before drafting a buy plan and exit test.
When deciding whether to switch into a new industry, use it to test if it is the right thing, within your circle of competence, and to draft a five-step execution checklist.
During a project failure review, structure error logs through pain, reflection, improvement, and system optimization instead of blaming individuals.
When evaluating a startup idea, use it to compare opportunism versus long-termism and check whether the idea crosses the unknown-domain boundary.

Best For

Individual investors who need a discipline check before stock trades and want to break impulsive judgments into boundaries and execution checklists.
Professionals considering a job change, career switch, or new business area who need to test whether it is the right thing and within their circle of competence.
Engineers or product owners leading team retrospectives who want to turn failures into error logs, root-cause fixes, and system improvements.
Founders or consultants who want to weave Dalio’s and Duan Yongping’s frameworks into decision notes, weekly reports, or startup direction discussions.

Related Skills

Antifragile Decision Framework

@user_15292d5a/yjkj-antifragile

Turns Taleb's antifragility, barbell strategy, and via negativa into executable prompts for risk analysis in career, investing, health, and other domains.

Knowledge Management 2026.08.30 ↓ 440