World Cup Match Predictor
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About this skill
Problem
When comparing two national teams, a simple head-to-head list is often not enough. This skill is useful for data-driven match discussion: given two teams and a tournament stage, it generates a structured prediction that combines World Cup history, recent continental performance, squad market value, international caps, and elite-player depth.
How It Works
- Data foundation: local files include
data/matches.csvwith 1,248 World Cup matches,data/team_stats_v2.jsonwith 87 team profiles,data/head_to_head.jsonwith 736 matchup records, plusdata/continental/*.txtanddata/transfermarkt/*.csv.gzfor tournament and player-value data. - Model logic: it uses a weighted composite score around Power V2 Score, Continental Form, Squad Value, Experience, and Elite Players, with
data/predict.pyfor predictions anddata/analyze_v2.pyfor deeper breakdowns. - Output shape: results typically include each team’s Power V2, World Cup win rate, squad value, and elite-player count, continental titles or win rates, win/draw/loss probabilities, expected score, and the main factors driving the prediction.
Limits
This is a statistical discussion aid, not betting advice. Squad values are a Transfermarkt snapshot, club-tier scores are approximate, and knockout or group-stage matches remain highly uncertain. Any output should keep the disclaimer that predictions are for entertainment only.
Use Cases
- Compare Power V2, squad value, and continental win rates for a World Cup group-stage matchup.
- Rank strong teams such as England, France, and Brazil by Power V2 and identify key advantages.
- Explain why squad value and Euro performance drive Spain's prediction against a lower-value team.
- Use head-to-head and Transfermarkt data to explain the key factors behind a specific match prediction.
Best For
- Sports editors writing match-day features who need team comparisons, probabilities, and key factors.
- Data analysts building sports content who need to recompute Power V2 from local datasets.
- Podcast hosts preparing World Cup special episodes who need squad value, titles, and prediction drivers.
- Engineers building football dashboards who need to call `predict.py` and read `team_stats_v2.json`.
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