Full Cycle Activity Duration Estimation

Problem to solve

Project duration estimation often starts with vague requirements, unclear task dependencies, missing OMP values, or single-point estimates that lack probability risk context. Manual workflows usually require separate WBS decomposition, CPM calculation, Monte Carlo simulation, and document drafting, making it easy to miss dependencies or produce inconsistent deliverables.

How it works

The skill connects WBS, dependency planning, estimation, reporting, and documentation into one workflow:

• Project decomposition: generate a structured WBS from a project description, or accept a manually provided task tree.
• Dependency planning: support FS/SS/FF/SF relations; dependencies can be auto-chained or completed by the model.
• Estimation: use direct estimation, beta distribution (PERT), normal distribution, and Monte Carlo simulation, together with CPM critical-path analysis and overlap detection.
• Output: produce a self-contained HTML report with Gantt chart, probability distribution, and overlap analysis; also generate project initiation, closure, stakeholder, and risk documents.
• Extensions: include knowledge-base query/write, external search, economic analysis, and earned value management branches.

Boundaries

Keep the task count to about 50 or fewer, enforce O <= M <= P, avoid circular dependencies, and use one consistent time unit. First-time non-typical tasks may require online search; reports are HTML files rather than direct PDF output. Pure conceptual questions or mathematical discussion do not need this workflow.